Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania

We have ourselves a genuine landslide! We need a little historical perspective. The margin between Reagan and Carter in 1980 was a 9.7 percent spread (50.7 to 41), roughly the same as last night's spread in Pennsylvania, which I hear over and over was a "mere" 9.4 percent. We called it a landslide then, and we should call it a landslide now. We Democrats, that is, we on the losing side that year, called it a landslide, because it was a landslide, and guess what, my fellow Democrats who support Barack Obama, you on the losing side, it is this year still a landslide.

But the analogy goes even further.  This diary is inspired by a comment that someone made that the appearance of landslide was an effect of the disparity between Reagan and Carter in the electoral college.  

If you want to use the electoral college as a measure, Reagan won 44 states and Carter won 7 (including the District of Columbia), that is, Reagan won 86.3 percent of the electoral college entities, and Carter won 13.7. The only comparable comparison in the primary is counties. Pennsylvania has 67 counties. It appears that Hillary won 62 of them, and Obama won five of them, that is, Hillary won 92.5 percent of Pennsylvania counties, and Obama won 7.5.

A landslide is a landslide is a landslide.



Display:


Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 1)

And Obama is still up by 150+ pledged delegates


by aaaa05 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:28:01 AM EST

A front runner (2.00 / 4)

who was able to win exactly one big Democratic state, a state where he happens to be the favorite son.  Hmmmmmm.  Front runner?


Another Hillary Supporter for Obama!
by Beltway Dem on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:29:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A front runner (2.00 / 0)

Against another Democrat....  against a Republican, things change a bit... especially since McCain seems to have foot-in-mouth disease this year...


Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...
by JenKinFLA on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:31:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A front runner (2.00 / 0)

Are you going on record as saying Obama won't win PA, MA, NY, or CA in November because he couldn't beat a strong candidate of the same party in the primary?



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:32:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A front runner (none / 0)

I think Obama will win NY and CA, perhaps requiring him to put up a genuine fight there.  He'll probably win in Massachusetts, but a little secret from the East Coast... Boston is regarded as the most racist city up here.  What might seem an easy task for a white Democrat unfortunately becomes a nightmare uphill battle for Obama in Mass.  Massachusetts outside of Boston area is white working class a la Western Pennsylvania.  

I see Obama losing Pennsylvania to McCain.  If Hillary wins, the "spite" voters on the Obama side are more likely to come to their senses and vote for the Dem to avoid more war, more nutjob Supreme Ct. justices, etc.  But the "never vote for Obama" voters who back Clinton now will definitely defect to McCain if Obama is the nominee.  At this point, I think we have around two dozen polls confirming this and I've seen it firsthand, albeit anecdotally.  It's a real phenomenon.  I see it with older whites, Catholics, women, and so forth.  

Then there's New Jersey, which also looks tight for Obama/McCain.  Don't forget that one of the "strengths" the GOP had in mind with McCain was that he would run better in the Northeast.  Hillary can "shoo" him out of this region with the snap of a finger, but Obama will be so entrenched defending this region, I don't see how he can defend every last Northeastern state and break into the GOP base.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:16:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A front runner (none / 0)

Have you seen the NJ polling Clinton is tight with McCain as well,MA appears to be he only state where their is a major difference between the two and its cancelled out by the fact that Hillary is weak in the Mid-west and the Pac-NorWest.


by Socraticsilence on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 03:08:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A front runner (2.00 / 1)

Hillary CLinton was the "front runner" who never had the pledged delegate lead against Obama even though back in 2006 or 2007 everyone said this was her presidency to lose. The Clinton campaign spin that she is the comeback kid is ridiculous. She is the one who "couldn't close the deal"


by aaaa05 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:38:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't spoil the magic of self delusion. (2.00 / 0)


by dystopianfuturetoday on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:29:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Aaaannnnddd Behind in Pop. Vote (2.00 / 2)


Donate to Hillary Now!
by alegre on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:44:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Aaaannnnddd Behind in Pop. Vote (2.00 / 2)

According to ABC :)


Donate to Hillary Now!
by alegre on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:45:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Oooonlyyyyy (2.00 / 1)

if you count uncontested states that won't be seated and that Hillary said shouldn't count while ignoring legitimate caucus states.

Other than that, he's a sweet 600,000 ahead, which we'll comfortably expand upon when we win Indiana and North Carolina.

IN: SUSA 4/14-16/08 C45 O50
NC: NYT/Bloomberg 4/10-14/08 C34 O47


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:06:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oooonlyyyyy (2.00 / 0)

I'm just curious, for those people who count Michigan's "popular vote" from that "election" which was ruled unconstitutional.

Is is not true that in MI, where Obama now polls ahead of Clinton, not one vote for Obama is counted in the "popular vote"?

Wow, what champions of the people these Clinton folks are.


by rhetoricus on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:51:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yup. (2.00 / 1)

Is is not true that in MI, where Obama now polls ahead of Clinton, not one vote for Obama is counted in the "popular vote"?

The approved talking point is to say that it's his own fault for taking his name off the ballot, actually.

I'd like to see a nomination for Hillary be considered legitimate if Obama gets penalized for complying with the DNC's request to stay out of Michigan, and that's her margin. Florida 2000 would be a walk in the park compared to that.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:59:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 0)

Actually, a landslide was what she needed to change some of the delegate math...  That's why last night was not a landslide...

It was a good win and a good shot in the arm for a campaign that needed one, but I didn't call it a landslide then and I will not do so now.


Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...
by JenKinFLA on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:29:03 AM EST

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 0)

When you are up by 20% weeks ago and come down to less than 9% is that a landslide?  We call that erosion.  


by SovSov on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:31:25 AM EST

Hmmm.Yeah... (2.00 / 3)

I'm sure his throwing ALL that money at the state (11.2 million) and outspending her by over $7 million, not to mention being the front runner and presumptive nominee,  had NOTHING to do with it.

The guy just can't close the deal.


Donate to Hillary Now!
by alegre on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:02:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmm.Yeah... (2.00 / 0)

As i said before it was hillary who was the inevitable candidate at the beginning of this process, she is the one who couldn't close the deal. it is silly to now say she is the comeback kid when she is the one who blew it. obama is still winning and will be the nominee


by aaaa05 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:04:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So then why (2.00 / 2)

if all the guy has going for him is money and sweet speeches, why can't Hillary finish him off?

She was the frontrunner for over a year. Why is she losing the delegate count, the popular vote, the state race, the money race, and the super-delegates?


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:09:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmm.Yeah... (2.00 / 1)

Actually for him it wasn't "all that" money. It was a pretty modest amount of his grassroots-built arsenal.

It's just a lot of money compared to a candidate who was broke and in debt. Apparently the people who vote for her don't love her enough to actually send her some cash, even in small amounts.

I'd call that "soft" support.


by rhetoricus on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:54:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 0)

this is snark, right?


by temptxan on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:32:59 AM EST

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 0)

8 percent is a landslide?


by Bobby Obama on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:34:25 AM EST

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (none / 0)

Hey now! 8.5%.

And that's given the regular vile raft of election problems PA always seems to have in the black districts.


by rhetoricus on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:56:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 2)

51% (DC) is a landslide.
44% (AR) is a landslide.
36% (GA) is a landslide.
35% (CO) is a landslide.
32% (IL) is a landslide.
29% (VA) is a landslide.
23% (MD) is a landslide.

Under 10%? Not so much.


Stop the racism. Fight the smears.
by CrazyDrumGuy on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:34:40 AM EST

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 1)

Well, when you get 90% of the AA vote, and the AAs are 40% of a state, tht gives you a .9*.4 = 36% margin right there.  Kind of hard to overcome those numbers.  But Clinton is doing an admirable job of staying in this and will probably beat Obama in the popular vote by the time June rolls around.  Landslides or not.


by mikes101 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:11:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Try 12% (none / 0)

Not 40%. The AA's are 12% in PA.

Pennsylvania is the second oldest state in the nation, and has one of the highest numbers of white Catholic working class voters (two demographics that are always tough for an AA). PA was the demographically ideal state for Clinton.

And Obama still did better in the tough metrics than he did in Ohio.

8.5% from 20-26%, when Clinton was already a known quantity, is called slippage.


by rhetoricus on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 12:04:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (none / 0)

What do you do to wave away Wisconsin, It was a blowout, and there is no massive African American population.


by Socraticsilence on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 03:10:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (none / 0)

I realized I had to go to class so I just picked a few states (making damn sure to include Arkansas lest I be maligned as a kool-aid-latte-drinking, volvo-driving elitist.:)


Stop the racism. Fight the smears.
by CrazyDrumGuy on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:31:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 2)

my, they're a bit testy this morning. the Hope is wearing a little thin, it seems.


by campskunk on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:39:00 AM EST

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 0)

Not testy, just amazed at how you can buy into the Clinton spin that things have changed when we are essentially where we were before PA


by aaaa05 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:41:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 0)

not testy, just getting dizzy from the spin and having to sit down....


Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...
by JenKinFLA on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:48:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah. Next Thing You Know (2.00 / 2)


Donate to Hillary Now!
by alegre on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:08:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 0)

The margin is now 8.6, and I believe the margin will be down to 8 when all the results are finally in.  That is less than a double digit win, and it is 12 pts less than what Hillary needed to really have a chance.  Any way you look at it Hillary lost big.


by Spanky on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:39:48 AM EST

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 1)

She won by 10% as all of the media and pundits are reporting this morning. Not concerned about the Obama math, doesn't matter. He lost and lost big!


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:45:45 AM EST

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (none / 0)

stop saying it's 8.6
go to cnn.com
by darlene25 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:54:57 AM EST

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (none / 0)

Actually you're wrong. The Pennsylvania Department of state has it at 9.2 now.

0Clinton 54.6 and Obama 45.4


"Beauty, more than bitterness, makes the heart break." Sara Teasdale
by april34fff on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:14:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (none / 0)

By convention, Hillary rounds up to 55, Obama rounds down to 45.

10 point win.  Same as Ohio.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:20:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's down to 8.5% (2.00 / 1)

Source here


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:19:15 AM EST

Re: It's down to 8.5% (none / 0)

Thanks for that update.


"Beauty, more than bitterness, makes the heart break." Sara Teasdale
by april34fff on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:22:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (none / 0)

and 9 pts is not a landslide.

When Obama won S.C...that was a landslide


"Beauty, more than bitterness, makes the heart break." Sara Teasdale
by april34fff on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:21:07 AM EST

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 1)

You are right.  It's not quite a landslide.  It was just a good solid whooping.


by mikes101 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:23:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A spin is a spin is a spin (none / 0)

Sounds like the 'Bush Mandate' here.


by mikeinsf on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:29:02 AM EST

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (2.00 / 0)

Rise Landslide Hillary, Rise!


by Caldonia on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 12:14:52 PM EST

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (none / 0)

I truly enjoy how only Hillary landslides are important, I mean when Obama wins by much larger margins welll the state was too black, or too white or they had a caucus, or it was too Wisconsiny. Seriously, how can people witha  straight face write off Obama blowout due to African AMericans, but then hold up Cali and Penn which are far more Hispanic (the former) or elderly (the latter) than the general population, I don't want to imply anything but I'm satarting to think that Black voters are just not as valid to some people.


by Socraticsilence on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 03:15:00 PM EST

Re: Hillary Wins by a Landslide in Pennsylvania (none / 0)

Popular vote: Out.

Number of counties: In.


by Skaje on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:35:07 PM EST


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